myerstownherald.com

By ERIC FISHER
By now you’ve probably hired a team of mathematicians to figure out the probabilities of winning your NCAA tournament pool … or you’ve already tossed your pool in the trash.
Unfortunately, you could have saved yourself a lot of headaches if you had reached out to me in advance.
Picking this year’s NCAA tournament is the easiest it has been in years. The clear pick is Connecticut. It’s not even close. UConn has been dominant all year. They haven’t lost all season. Nobody is playing on the same level as …
Oh, wait a minute. You want my picks for the NCAA men’s tournament. Well, that’s a different story.
It’s too late to use my picks to help you win your pool. But that might be a good thing. The truth is that I haven’t won an NCAA pool involving more than 10 participants in 20 years.
If you truly want help filling out your pool in future years, there’s a woman in Kentucky who has an uncanny knack for picking winners by matching uniform colors with the color of strands of yarn her cat pulls out from under the sofa. I suggest you find her before next March’s madness.
Meanwhile, it may be too late for filling out your pool, but it’s not too late for a tournament guide.
The truth is that the men’s tournament is wide open. The number of teams that earned and lost the No. 1 ranking this season is indicative of the balance in men’s basketball. There are 8-10 teams with legitimate shots at winning the tournament.
The following are some tips for following the tournament:
The excitement of the first four days is generated by upsets. Where are the best places to look for upsets?
Don’t look for a No. 16 or 15 seed to knock off a No. 1 or 2 seed. A 16th seed has never beaten a No. 1. There have been instances where a No. 15 has upset a No. 2, but I don’t see it happening this year.
So what’s the biggest upset you have in your pool?
I think a No. 14 team will upset a No. 3 this year. In fact, I picked two No. 14’s to fill the role of Cinderella. I picked the senior-dominated Bison of North Dakota State to upset defending champion Kansas, which is very inexperienced after losing five players to the NBA draft.
I also selected No. 14 Stephen F. Austin to stun No. 3 Syracuse. No, I didn’t pick the Lumberjacks because Stone Cold Steve Austin is being inducted into the WWE Hall of Fame in a few weeks. All right, I admit Austin’s induction influenced my selection a little bit, as did the cool nickname. But the biggest factor was that the senior-laden Lumberjacks could take advantage of a younger Syracuse team that may be emotionally exhausted after its remarkable run through the Big East tournament. My selection was cemented by Lumberjacks forward Josh Alexander, who has the same name as one of my high school basketball teammates.
Doesn’t a No. 12 seed always beat a No. 5?
It doesn’t always happen, but it happens frequently enough to be a trend. The most likely upset involving these seeds is the Western Kentucky (12) vs. Illinois (5) matchup.
Could you stick your neck out any further?
Sure. I also have No. 13 Mississippi State winning – twice. In the first round, I’m also taking No. 11 VCU over No. 6 UCLA and No. 11 Temple – go ahead, call me a homer – over No. 6 Arizona State.
Isn’t Gonzaga always a good upset pick?
The Zags may be a good pick, but they’re not an upset pick. Gonzaga, in the tournament for the 11th straight year, is a No. 4 seed. With three seniors, a junior and a 6-foot-11 sophomore in their starting lineup, the Zags are for real. Those players remember being upset by Davidson, last year’s Cinderella, in last year’s first round. They won’t let it happen again. So Gonzaga isn’t Cinderella – at least not until they face top-seeded North Carolina in the Sweet 16. And don’t be shocked if the Zags find out the glass slipper still fits as they upset the Tar Heels.
Is the Big East overrated?
No. Despite my prediction of Syracuse being upset, the Big East is a beast. Don’t be surprised if two – or even three – Big East teams reach the Final Four.
So which teams will make it to the Final Four?
My picks are Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh and Gonzaga. Louisville is my pick to win it all.
Aren’t you risking ridicule by making your picks before the tournament but not having them published until after the first day of the tournament?
Absolutely. To paraphrase Phillies Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt, I get to experience the thrill of writing a column and the agony of reading it the next day.