myerstownherald.com

By ERIC FISHER
The Chase for the Sprint Cup is upon us, and the only aspect that is predictable is that this year’s Chase should be unpredictable.
This year’s Chase should be unpredictable because the whole year has been unpredictable. Who thought Brian Vickers would make the Chase? Juan Pablo Montoya? Kasey Kahne? Ryan Newman?
How many people predicted that Kyle Busch would tie for the lead in victories – and miss the Chase? How many thought Matt Kenseth, who had never missed the Chase, would miss it after winning this year’s first two races?
Despite NASCAR’s unpredictability, I will still take a stab at predicting the Chase, which begins Sunday in New Hampshire.
LONGSHOTS: Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle. I doubt any of these three veteran drivers will be celebrating when the Chase is over.
Earlier this season, Newman looked like a championship contender, putting together five top-five finishes in seven races. However, Newman hasn’t finished in the top five since June 7. Making the Chase was an accomplishment. Winning the Chase looks like an impossible dream.
Busch, the 2004 NASCAR champion, had 14 top 10 finishes this season, but it’s been a long time since his lone victory on March 8. Busch finished second at last Saturday’s Chevy Rock & Roll 400, but the impending departure of crew chief Pat Tryson for Martin Truex Jr.’s crew at the end of the year is a bad sign for Busch’s Chase prospects.
Biffle, who finished second in 2005, won the first two Chase races last year, so maybe he deserves better odds. Biffle has been consistent this season, but he only has two top-three finishes – and both of them were third. Add in Roush Fenway Racing’s problems this year, and Biffle becomes a longshot to win the Sprint Cup.
NOT-THE-USUAL SUSPECTS: Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Juan Pablo Montoya. These three drivers have nothing to lose. Nobody expects them to win. Then again, few people expected this trio to be in the Chase, either.
Kahne went nearly three months without a top-five finish, but he turned his season around with a victory on June 21. Kahne added a victory earlier this month at Atlanta Motor Speedway. A confidence-building victory could make Kahne a top contender.
Vickers made an amazing push, including a victory at the Carfax 400 in Michigan, to qualify for the Chase. The good news is that Vickers hasn’t finished outside the top 12 during the last nine races. The bad news is that the first Chase race is in Loudon, N.H., where Vickers finished 35th at the end of June.
Montoya is an intriguing contender. He made the Chase because he reined in his aggressive tendencies and took fewer gambles. Now that he’s in the Chase, however, Montoya can be more aggressive, making him a dark horse to win the championship.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS: Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards. Gordon and Edwards can’t be counted out, but both drivers’ championship hopes are dampened by injuries.
Gordon is no longer a regular in the top five, as he was at the start of the year. But he does have three second-place finishes in the past 12 races, and he finished third last Saturday in Richmond. Gordon could win the Chase, but nagging back problems make that task more difficult.
Edwards, my preseason choice to win the Sprint Cup, hasn’t been to victory lane this year. His winless streak may be partially due to Roush Fenway Racing’s struggles. Not helping matters is the broken foot Edwards sustained two weeks ago while playing Frisbee.
TOP CONTENDERS: Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson. Johnson, the three-time defending champion, is the favorite, but don’t count the others out.
Stewart has had a remarkable first season as a driver-owner, running away with the points lead. None of his three wins, however, came on Chase tracks. Furthermore, Stewart hasn’t cracked the top 10 in his last four races. He might not be able to turn it on again once the Chase begins.
In contrast to Stewart, Hamlin enters the Chase as NASCAR’s hottest driver. He’s been in the top 10 for the past six races, including victories at Pocono and last Saturday in Richmond. Hamlin finished third in the 2006 Chase as a rookie. He may finish higher this season.
The sentimental favorite is the 50-year-old Martin, who finished second overall four times, most recently in 2002. Can Martin, who won more races (four) than any of the other Chase contenders this season, shake the best-driver-never-to-win-a-championship tag? Don’t bet against him.
The Chase is Johnson’s time of year. There’s a reason he has won three straight championships. If you’re looking for a reason that Johnson won’t win, it’s that he finished outside the top 10, including a 33rd- and 36th-place finish, in five of the past six races. On the other hand, two of Johnson’s three victories this year came at Dover and Martinsville, both of which host Chase races.
PREDICTION: Johnson will hold off Martin … for second place. In this unpredictable year, I’m picking Hamlin to win it all.